The prompt month NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures contract fell $0.031/gal to $0.914/gal February 11, 2016 following a notice by Genscape that Irving’s 300,000 bpd St. John, NB, refinery restarted a fluid catalytic cracking unit that went down earlier that week. Activity at the 70,000 bpd FCC, the refinery’s biggest gasoline-producing unit, returned to normal operating levels during the early morning of February 11, 2016 according to Genscape’s real-time infrared monitors.
Genscape notified its real-time data customers of the unit restart at 7:37 a.m. EST February 11, 2016 (see Figure 1). The unit appeared to be in hot-circulation during the unplanned outage, a state wherein no on-spec product is produced but a swift return to service is possible after necessary repairs are made, according to Genscape analysts.
Gasoline prices rose February 9, 2016 and February 10, 2016 after the news of the unplanned FCC outage. At 2:35 p.m. EST February 9, 2016 Genscape alerted real-time data customers to the shutdown of the unit. Within a half hour, the prompt month NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures contract price rose nearly $0.03/gal to $0.931/gal (see Figure 2). This FCC upset likely contributed to stronger prices on February 10, 2016 with RBOB peaking at $0.971/gal cents during trading hours.
The FCC was recently shut for planned maintenance from September 15, 2015 to December 6, 2015. The maintenance was part of a planned turnaround known as Operation Falcon, the largest in company history, according to Irving. The Irving refinery produces up to 164,000 bpd gasoline and diesel products, according to data compiled by Genscape, making the facility a key supplier of these products to the U.S. East Coast (see Figure 3).
Genscape's North American Refinery Intelligence Service combines observations obtained from infrared cameras with in-house analytical and technological expertise to provide an unrivaled view into real-time operations at U.S. and Canadian refineries. Genscape currently monitors 74 percent of overall refinery capacity in the United States, including 92 percent of East Coast refineries, 79 percent of Midcontinent refineries, and 91 percent of Gulf Coast refineries. To learn more, or request a free trial of the North American Refinery Intelligence Service, click here.