Genscape’s November 2016 NOPA national crush estimate was 160.7 million bushels, precisely forecasting NOPA’s 160.752 million bushels released on December 15, 2016. Most market expectations were higher than NOPA’s release. Genscape’s advantage on the NOPA estimate is our monitored data, which covers more than 20 percent of U.S. crush capacity. Two new monitored facilities are shown in the infrared images below.
Genscape’s monitoring in the Indiana-Kentucky-Ohio-Michigan region produced an estimate of 35.9 million bushels, and the region’s NOPA statistic was 35.8 million bushels. Monitored coverage is growing with nearly a doubling in capacity expected to be online in 2017. Genscape also monitors outages at 15 facilities, and reported 0.661 million missed bushels of processing in November.
Indiana-Kentucky-Ohio-Michigan (IKOH)
Genscape monitors a total of six facilities for processing and outages in the IKOH region. The estimate for bushels per day (bpd) processing for this month was down about one percent from last month’s NOPA statistic. The chart below shows the historic regional estimates compared with the NOPA statistics.
Looking back to September, Genscape monitored facilities indicated a steep increase in processing from August to September, a higher increase than indicated by NOPA for the region as a whole. Genscape has obtained Indiana environmental data that contains the monthly crush rate for each facility in the state, which is released several weeks after the end of each quarter and helps assess plant-to-plant variability.
The chart below compares the recent performance of the top four Indiana crushing facilities. Louis Dreyfus Claypool and Bunge Morristown maintained lower production levels in September while ADM Frankfort and Bunge Decatur recovered to pre-maintenance rates. The former are not monitored for processing while the latter are.
These plant-to-plant differences account for about a 100,000 bushel per day difference between the expected Indiana crush based on the Genscape proxy and the actuals published in the environmental reports. This accounts for most of the difference between the Genscape and NOPA data in September. These differences are not expected to be as pronounced outside of the shoulder and maintenance seasons. Genscape is currently testing a camera installation at Louis Dreyfus Claypool and working to extend the use of existing monitors at Bunge Morristown to estimate crush rate.
This blog is an excerpt from Genscape’s November Soybean Processing Monitor Commentary, which provides insight with proprietary, real-time monitoring of a strong statistical sample of U.S. soybean processing. The report is available up to seven days ahead of the NOPA report, and up to three weeks ahead of the NASS report, providing timely, impactful data that assists our clients in making better-informed decisions. Click here to learn more about the report, or to request a copy of the full report for this month.