Hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin is kicking off early this year. Tropical Storm Arlene, the first named storm of the 2017 Hurricane Season, is currently in the central Atlantic and moving towards the northwest. Genscape believes that is not a remote threat to the U.S. and will likely remain so as it is expected to dissipate on Friday, April 21. The official start of the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30.
Forecasts from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project (CSU) are predicting slightly below-normal activity for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The CSU forecast for the 2017 season is as follows: 11 named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, with sustained winds in excess of 110 mph. According to CSU’s 2017 forecast, the probability for at least one major (category 3, 4, or 5) hurricane to make landfall along the U.S. coastline is 42 percent (average for last century is 52 percent). Historically, 3.5 named storms, 1.8 hurricanes, and 0.7 major hurricanes make U.S. landfall per year on average. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) does not put out an official forecast until May.
The 2016 hurricane season was characterized as having slightly above-normal activity with a total of 15 named storms total, including seven hurricanes, with three categorized as major hurricanes. Of these, two tropical storms made U.S. landfalls. One of the most notable hurricanes to make landfall was Matthew, which became the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Felix in 2007, and was a long-lasting storm (11 days) that impacted Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. coastal states.
Matthew made its way north, traveling parallel to Florida from October 5 to 7, before making landfall on October 8 near McClellanville, South Carolina, as a Category 1 storm. Week over week,September 25 to October 1 verses October 2 to October 8, gas demand in the states that were most heavily impacted by Hurricane Matthew (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina) dipped roughly 1.8 percent from a weekly total consumption of 51.3 Bcf to 50.3 Bcf. While roughly one million folks were without power, nominations to power plants in Florida stayed relatively flat, while citygate demand dropped roughly ten percent. North and South Carolina saw a slightly more pronounced dip in demand related to the storm. North Carolina citygate deliveries fell 10 percent and deliveries to power plants dipped by 13 percent. In South Carolina, deliveries to citygates remained flat, while deliveries to power plants dropped 18 percent. Genscape's daily NatGas Basis Commentary Report published on October 14, shared further details on its impact.
As production continues to shift to inland regions and hurricane activity in the Gulf remains below average, Genscape is seeing the impact from hurricanes shift from production-destruction to impacting demand through shifts in temperatures. Get insight this hurricane seasons and learn how their affects on U.S. gas demand by checking out Genscape’s NatGas Basis Commentary Report.