On May 8, Genscape estimated that the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) members crushed 141.9 million bushels during April 2017, down from 153.1 million bushels in March 2017. This is also down 5.7 million bushels from April 2016. Genscape’s estimate was approximately 4 million bushels better than average trade expectations. The official May 15 NOPA release was 139.1 million bushels.
Genscape estimated that the Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan (IKOM) and Southwest (SW) regions experienced the most significant drops from last month and last year. IKOM saw a decrease of 3.35 million bushels from April 2016 and 5.12 million bushels from last month. The SW region saw a decrease of 1.96 million bushels from April 2016 and 2.29 million bushels from last month.
The majority of the overall decrease from March is explained by a significant increase in plant outages. According to Genscape proprietary, physical monitoring and industry sources, in April, 12.15 million bushels were not processed due to plant outages. The most significant increase in outages occurred in the IKOM region where there were 2.43 million more outage bushels than in March. The Iowa, Minnesota, and SW regions each saw about 1.72 million more outage bushels than in March. The total outage bushels this month were almost identical to April 2016. Genscape data indicated that the base processing rate before outages was 5.5 million bushels lower this April than last.
Genscape’s first May outlook will be available to clients on May 16, with daily updates until the final May outlook on June 5.
Genscape’s Soybean Crush Report shares a strong statistical sample of the U.S. soybean processing by leveraging proprietary, near-real-time monitoring. The report provides access to forecasts available up to seven days ahead of NOPA releases. It includes timely, impactful data that assists our clients in making better-informed decisions. To learn more about Genscape’s Soybean Crush Report, please click here.