Public information on a private upgraders such as Shell’s Scotford upgrader in Alberta is hard to come by. Most analysts rely on the public government data that is often three to six months lagged and can only confirm big changes in production after the fact. Genscape’s infrared cameras can help bridge this gap, and have been an effective indicator in informing the Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast, especially at Scotford. The Scotford Upgrader, which has a production capacity of ~255 Mb/d, largely produces a synthetic crude oil (SCO) grade from mined bitumen.
Below is a chart from the Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast detailing Genscape's upgrader-level forecast for Scotford against Genscape’s unit-level intelligence data. For this comparison, Genscape analysts use a numerical proxy for traditional “ON”/”OFF” daily data to estimate a monthly average utilization rate. This is similar methodology that can be found in the new North American Crude Oil Balance Forecast for weekly refinery utilization as well.
Genscape's forecast is trending very closely to its implied utilization where the analysts have forecasted that Scotford production will dip to 165 Mb/d in April 2016 and 65 Mb/d in May 2016, similar to 2015 (which was a very large maintenance event). Currently the average utilization rate at Scotford is 51 percent in April. In the Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast, maintenance at Suncor, Syncrude, Horizon, and Nexen upgraders is slated for spring/early summer of 2016. These events will have an immediate impact on Canadian exports to the U.S. (PADD 2), and start to show up in the EIA’s weekly imports data in the coming weeks as forecasted in Genscape's North American Crude Oil Balance Forecast.
The Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast is the most detailed, comprehensive oil production forecast across the significant oil producing regions in Canada. To learn more or request a free trial, please click here.
Genscape's new North American Crude Oil Balance Forecast provides a three-year outlook at the supply and demand balances in the U.S. and Canada. To learn more or request a free trial, please click here.