Following Ibrahim Jadran’s (former Central Region Commander of the Petroleum Facilities Guard) June 14, 2018 attack on the Ras Lanuf (damaged) and Es Sider terminals in Libya’s Oil Crescent, several outlets released reports on the amount of oil production forced offline. Some estimates reached 850 kbpd implying Libyan oil production fell to ~150 kbpd. In the midst of such data cacophony, Genscape’s High Frequency Oil Production Monitor (“HFOMP”) helps clear the confusion and provides a window into actual production levels.
Below is a graph showing Genscape’s HFOPM for Libya vs. specific news reports citing production levels. While we see sporadic high levels of production on days when large fields operate properly, which the NOC recently confirmed has been as high as 1.28 mmbpd of oil (excluding ~40 kbpd to ~55 kbpd of NGLs) data suggests such activity is not sustainable for more than a few consecutive days.
Based on the HFOPM, Genscape sees the following fields currently offline: As Sarah, El Feel, Gialo, Hamada, Majid, Nakhla-Hamid, Samah, Waha, and Zahrah. The Al Harougue fields were offline beginning on June 16, 2018, but restarted on July 3.
We see curtailed production from Abu Attifel, Intisar, Messla, Nafoura, Nasser-Zeltan, Raguba, Rimal-Katib, and Sarir, but the fields are not fully offline.
Al Jurf, Bouri, Sharara NC 115 and NC 186, and Wafa currently operate normally. Below is a graph of the HFOM’s entire history.
Given the fluid security situation, four force majeure declarations on terminals, and elections looming, cargo counting likely proves insufficient for accurate and timely intelligence on Libya.
In addition to Libya, the HFOPM also tracks Ecuador, Kazakhstan, Peru, and Venezuela. We are working to add more countries, be sure to stay up-to-date on any additions by checking out our report.
Genscape’s Global Oil Supply Report provides valuable, comprehensive window available into the current state of global oil supply. Using our proprietary monitoring, government and publicly available data, and imagery, the report combines an academic forecast and data science to provide a unique view of the rapidly changing oil-producing countries across the world. Click here to learn more about the Global Oil Supply Report.
Building on the global report’s foundation, we recently combined our proprietary flare signature evaluation methodology with liquids production data by field in Libya and Venezuela (coverage is expanding to other countries) to create the High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor ("HFOPM"), a high-frequency estimate of total oil and other liquids production. The goal is to generate accurate production level tracking and detect inflection points earlier by assessing previous weeks and months faster than other sources.