Genscape has recently monitored Talen Energy’s Brandon Shores using infrared technology, adding the plant to the Power Real-Time (Power RT) interface on April 22, 2016. The infrared camera takes images every five minutes displaying real-time images, and is commonly used for plants located in urban areas where Genscape’s traditional technology is unable to monitor generation output. Brandon Shores has long been one of the top requested plants by customers for the North American Power RT product. The 1,273 MW coal plant is located in Pasadena, Maryland just outside of Baltimore.
Brandon Shores is arguably the most important plant in PJM because of its critical location right in the center of the BGE zone. Looking at the map on the right displaying Real-Time generation less Real-Time load from January 2016 - March 2016 in GWhs, the green zones such as AEP, PENELEC, and PPL have excess generation relative to load, and thus send additional power east to the more generation deficient zones such as PEPCO and BGE. The two zones have a combined generation capacity of 10.5 GWs, while last summer the PEPCO and BGE combined loads peaked at 12.6 GWs. Brandon Shores accounts for 12 percent of the combined capacity in the two zones, and is thus a critical baseload unit.
Any further under-commitment in these zones will result in significantly more expensive energy costs and congestion.
Having monitors on the Brandon Shores facility instantly brings increased transparency to WHUB Traders as it is essential to understanding congestion in BGE. As excess power flows south onto a constrained network serving load in Baltimore and DC, the transmission lines will overload causing congestion on Bagley-Graceton (when the line is in service) and Conastone-Northwest (when the line is on outage). With ongoing work on Bagley-Graceton as a parallel line is currently being built, outages on the surrounding network continue to make BGE volatile and the most expensive zone.
Brandon Shores alleviates congestion on Bagley-Graceton 230kV and Conastone-Northwest 230kV, which are the most frequently binding and costly constraints in PJM. Any loss of output at Brandon Shores can result in very expensive dispatch, and having this generation output will help Traders stay ahead.
To get an idea of how important Brandon Shores is to congestion in BGE and WHUB, we can look back at the morning of October 14, 2015 when Brandon Shores had tripped offline in HE 8. West Hub 5 minute prints went from $32 at 7:45 to $267 within the next 10 minutes, while Conastone-Northwest shadow prices went from $62 to $1,732 during the same time interval.
Brandon Shores is also located on the sink side of congestion affecting West Hub, meaning that the facility receives upside from congestion costs and is incentivized to increase output to alleviate congestion. On a nodal level, Brandon Shores has approximately a 10 percent shift factor on Conastone-Northwest congestion. So at a shadow price of $1,000, the Brandon Shores node will receive $100 in Marginal Congestion Costs (MCC). Consequently, the absence of Brandon Shores generation is a very bullish indicator for both BGE congestion and WHUB.
Aside from West Hub Traders, other market participants are also able to capitalize on the status of Brandon Shores generation. Up-To Traders that believe BGE congestion will be greater in the Real-Time than in the Day-Ahead, due to the absence of Brandon Shores generation, can submit financial transactions in the Day-Ahead market that speculate on Real-Time versus Day-Ahead congestion between two points. As an example, one could source at Peach Bottom and sink at BGE with expectations that the congestion spread in the Real-Time will be greater than the Day-Ahead.
As an asset manager dispatching units in eastern PJM, it is also relevant to know the status of Brandon Shores. As seen above on a contour map of PJM, BGE congestion results in substantial pricing separation between zones North and South of the constraint. If one anticipates strong congestion in BGE, it would be prudent to schedule less generation into the Day-Ahead and more into the Real-Time in zones such as BGE and DOM, while zones in northern Mid-A should avoid scheduling into the RT as they receive strong downside from congestion.
One powerful indicator for predicting BGE congestion in the real time is line flows on the Conastone-Brighton line on Transmission RT. It is the contingency for most constraints in BGE, and it is common to see congestion once flows are elevated around 1200 MWs or more. Less generation output at nearby plants such as Morgantown, Chalk Point, and Remington are all bullish indicators for BGE congestion; Genscape can often see a corresponding change in flows as some of these plants ramp. However, Brandon Shores is the most important of all due to its close proximity to the line and high shift factor for Conastone-Northwest congestion.
Genscape believes that with this new monitor on Brandon Shores, there will be much greater visibility as this unit has long been a missing piece of the puzzle for BGE congestion and West Hub volatility.
Used by power market participants for over a decade, Power RT gives unrivaled visibility into the main U.S. power markets. The larger the number of plants that Genscape monitors, and the greater the varieties of fuel types, the more transparency Genscape can provide across all generation types on the grid in real time, including notifications of generation outages and changes, helping to better inform trading strategies, analyze production, and optimize asset utilization. Click here to learn more or request a trial of Genscape's Power RT service.