With the opening of the Panama Canal Extension in June, larger ships with new commodities have begun passing through the canal.
Genscape Vesseltracker™ AIS data confirmed that the Maran Gas Appollonia was the first LNG ship to pass through the newly expanded Panama Canal. The 19th export from Sabine will bring another first to the revolution taking place within the North American gas market. The Maran Gas Appollonia (3.43 Bcf) left the afternoon of July 20 and was progressing through the newly constructed gates at the Panama Canal on the afternoon of July 25.
North American LNG exports are expected to bring a “new world order” to global gas and power markets, setting global gas prices and power margins for years to come. With that, it’s important to understand where exports are going, how they are getting there, and when they’re expected to arrive.
There is no single data set that will say which large gas carriers are likely to transit the Panama Canal, however, by using gas carriers with known destinations and estimated times of arrival, routes can be calculated to determine whether it’s likely that a ship will route through the canal.
According to the Panama Canal Authority's press release on July 25, “A second LNG carrier, BP’s British Merchant, is expected to pass through the Panama Canal on [July 26], followed by a third cargo in early August.” Using AIS data, Genscape can infer these vessel routes, determine whether ships are likely to pass through the canal, and confirm when they do. Checking the British Merchant on Vesseltracker, for example, one can see it set its destination as Manzanillo on July 21 with an ETA of August 2, meaning that it must have had to go through the Panama Canal to arrive to that port on that date. Genscape Vesseltracker AIS data confirms that it moved through the canal on July 26. For future cargos Vesseltracker can be used keep an eye on vessels entering the region and checking their details.
Adding to this analysis, Genscape analysts can compare the time it takes to get from any one location to another; in the case of LNG specifically, the time it takes to go from any liquefaction terminal to the four regasification terminals on the west coast of the Americas, or the time it takes to get from Port Arthur in the U.S. to any of the Asian regasification terminals. The trip from Point Fortin (Trinidad and Tobago) to Quintero (Chile) changes from 14.2 days to 7.9 days when ships route through the Panama Canal, shortening their voyage by exactly 6.3 days. The trip from Port Arthur, TX to Sodeguara (Japan) changes from 47.3 days (assuming it goes through Suez Canal) to 29.9 days, shortening the voyage by 17.4 days. (Note: both comparisons assume a speed of 20 knots).
It’s also important to take into consideration the cost of a voyage. Currently, charter rates for spot LNG are approximately $25,000, down from $100,000 or more per day. If canal fees are high enough, and the cost to charter a ship and fuel it is be low enough, then the long haul through the South Atlantic to India or Chile might be a more favorable route. For example, Genscape has recently observed that the Suez Canal has been bypassed recently in favor of longer voyages, due to the low shipping and fuel costs.
Genscape’s North American LNG Supply & Demand product (coming soon) provides proprietary, real-time monitoring of the LNG supply chain, including information from Genscape Vesseltracker, from the commissioning process through startup and continuing operations, and allows users to watch new supplies of LNG come online in real time. To learn more about the service, please click here. Additionally, Genscape's Global LNG Monitor provides real-time monitoring of LNG cargoes, terminals, and routes with state-of-the-art predictive algorithms.
Genscape Vesseltracker provides the tools to monitor the changing trade patterns with a combination of ship schedules containerized ships and traffic analysis tools for monitoring other current and historic traffic. Genscape Vesseltracker currently runs one of the largest privately owned AIS receiver networks on the planet, combined with the largest AIS Satellite constellation currently available, over 144,000 vessels are tracked daily in near real-time. To learn more or request a free trial of Genscape Vesseltracker, please click here.
