Summer 2016 featured above normal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States. In the East and Southwest warm anomalies were strongest, which drove strong cooling load. The majority of the key U.S. power markets experienced stronger year-over-year peak demand. According to NOAA, population-weighted cooling degree days (PWCDDs) totaled at 1,030, 25 percent stronger than average.
Overview:
The dissipation of El Niño marked an important transition in the climate regime. Combined with very warm waters in the Atlantic, this new pattern played in key role in driving strong temperatures throughout the summer. Starting with June, a strong upper ridge developed across the Northern Plains and Rockies that delivered intense heat from Kansas City west through Denver. By July and August, the strongest ridging and most pronounced warm anomalies became focused across the eastern U.S. August registered as the warmest on record for the Northeast climate region with an average temperature anomaly of +4.7°F. Meteorological summer registered at the fifth warmest on record, tied with 2006 with an average temperature anomaly of +2.12°F!
East Coast:
June 2016 featured marginally above normal temperatures across NYISO, ISO-NE, and PJM. Despite the warmth, the lack of sustained heat to kick-start cooling load, as well as frequent thunderstorm activity across PJM, caused demand to verify below month expectations. After the slow start, hot and humid conditions started to build during July before peaking in August. This caused cooling demand to soar to the highest levels since 2013, with summer demand peaks occurring in August for the first time since 2009.
Midwest and Lower Mississippi:
The summer season featured a fair amount of variability month-to-month, but as a whole the Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley saw warmer than average conditions. The above average warm temperatures were in line with the forecast signal, although the peak summer temperatures were slightly weaker than anticipated. Peak demand occurred in late July, in line with a typical cooling load season. June featured warm anomalies focused to the west, while August featured warm anomalies focused east, including several of the major Midwest demand centers. Above average precipitation was a feature for both the Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley, helping to maintain humidity levels but at times blunted peak cooling load.
Plains:
Summer got off to a strong start across the Central and Northern Plains, driving strong energy demand across the SPP footprint during June. Temperatures verified four to six degrees above normal from Tulsa northward into Omaha, with several days featuring peak highs in the middle to upper nineties. Progressing into July, seasonal temperatures were noted across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures were focused in Texas, driving a consistently strong ERCOT demand. Despite near seasonal temperatures for Texas, an impressive stretch of heat the week of August 8 propelled ERCOT to a new all-time demand record of 71.2GW on August 11, within 200 MW of our summer peak forecast. Temperatures in June and August verified near expectations for the Central and Northern Plains with slightly warmer than expectations in Texas.
West:
Despite the bullish start to the summer, demand fell shy of our summer peak load forecast of 47 GW in CAISO. Weak La Niña coupled with drought feedback led to southern California temperatures verifying five to seven degrees Fahrenheit above average through June. Anomalous June warmth in Southern California drove SCE to see its highest demand (23,564 MW) in the past five years. While temperatures in the Pacific Northwest verified in line with Genscape’s forecast for June, higher frequency of low pressure troughing in the Pacific Northwest through July prompted temperatures to trend slightly below average in eastern Washington and Oregon. July demand got off to a bearish start in California driven by slightly cooler than average temperatures, but hot late July temperatures led to peak demand in CAISO. Widespread warmth continued across the Western footprint through August, with persistent high pressure in the eastern Pacific focusing the warmest anomalies (+3ᵒ to +4ᵒ) along the Northern California and Oregon coasts.
Genscape's Power Market Services provides access to accurate and timely data on capacities, flow, and utilization of power. Weather can have a large impact on power demand and generation, especially with the seasonal extremes seen across the U.S. in these summer months. Industry insight on significant weather events can forecast future patterns, helping market participants make more informed trading or business decisions. Click here to learn more about the full range of Genscape's Power Market services.