One large vessel likely arriving into New Orleans carrying an important fertilizer can significantly shift the product’s supply to demand ratio and impact the market and prices. For instance, large Moroccan or Chinese vessels containing Mono and Di Ammonium Phosphate fertilizer can add 55,000 metric tons, or close to 12 percent, of the average supply for a month (see Table 1). Advanced knowledge of these vessels can prepare a potential buyer for corresponding price changes.
Many services rely on manufacturers, importers, exporters, and brokers for information on potential imports. These information sources have their pitfalls. Weather, availability, and other activities at the dock can impact export activities and vessel reliability, and depending on someone who has a financial stake in the information has hazards. Genscape’s vessel prediction system does not rely on information from others, it is based strictly on empirical evidence from vessel movement, loading, and unloading patterns.
At Genscape, we use state-of-the-art technology from our Genscape Vesseltracker AIS-based Geographic Information System to monitor vessels across the entire globe. We have been monitoring fertilizer shipments since 2012. By noting which berths load fertilizer, which vessels move fertilizer, where the fertilizer is moved and unloaded, and changes in the vessel’s information (draft, speed, direction), we can develop a detailed map of fertilizer export and import berths. Every twenty minutes, location information for every major vessel in the world is collected and analyzed. Vessels that enter berths that have historically shipped fertilizer are marked and monitored for further movements. When any of these vessels declare a U.S. or Brazil destination, the name is sent to an analyst who then reviews time spent at the berth, current and past draft, current direction, and speed to determine if that vessel is highly likely to be carrying fertilizer.
Genscape’s method provided transparency around the vessels coming out of El Jorf Lasfar, Morocco, carrying MAP and DAP fertilizer early last summer. A series of vessels were reported to be bringing MAP/DAP into the U.S. from Morocco. Genscape reviewed the berth each of these vessels anchored in (a berth that normally unloads coal not for loading fertilizer), the length of time spent at the berth (the vessels were only spending a day or two at the berth, fertilizer usually loads at only about 10,000 metric tons a day), and the draft (full draft at entry, empty draft at departure) to conclude that these vessels were not carrying fertilizer to the U.S. This information told our clients that an additional 55,000 metric tons of MAP/DAP was not coming into New Orleans well before customs or others could verify it.
The image above is an example of what Genscape is doing every day for all potential fertilizer vessels (urea, UAN, anhydrous etc.). We list vessel arrival and departure times in our report so that clients can see we are monitoring and checking every vessel for the appropriate draft changes and berth visits.
Genscape’s U.S. Fertilizer Production and Transportation Report provides timely and accurate insight into the U.S. fertilizer supply chain. This includes the most frequent production and transportation data for fertilizer producers, traders, and commodity analysts in the market. Our Genscape Vesseltracker AIS-based system monitors this transportation around the globe. To learn more, or to request a trial of the Fertilizer report, please click here.