Total exports of gasoil and Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) cargoes from load ports in the Baltic Sea have remained steadily above a 500 KMT per-week total over the past four weeks. For the week ending January 13, 2017, weekly Baltic GO/ULSD exports edged over 650 KMT total – well above the typical weekly export levels around the 400 to 550 KMT range seen during October, November, and December of last year.
The consistently high level of Baltic distillate cargo shipments is likely to have contributed to inventories in Antwerp/Rotterdam/Amsterdam (ARA) rising continuously for the past six weeks. This is despite the fact that all Baltic exports did not move to ARA. Hamburg and the Thames regularly received the largest amount of weekly shipments.
Aside from the occasional supply into Argentina, very few Baltic GO/ULSD exports generally leave Europe (see chart); NW European destinations dominate for Baltic stems, while north German ports, such as Hamburg, Bremen, and Rostock, are the largest regular recipients of Baltic GO/ULSD cargoes. From all loading regions, discharges of GO/ULSD cargoes into ARA ports peaked at a weekly high of 602,565 MT in the week ending February 3.
This recent high level of gasoil cargoes into ARA comes in addition to the recent arrival of the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) Eco Seas from East Asia on February 2. The ship arrived at anchorage off Rotterdam, having traveled to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope and the Bahamas. Since arriving, Eco Seas has sat offshore with an unchanged laden draft according to its AIS info, suggesting that its cargo has yet to be discharged. Additionally, as of February 9, no ship-to-ship discharges have been observed.
Similar to cargo imports, ARA stock levels are likely to have been pushed higher by the recent low water levels on the Rhine. This has prevented barges that move GO/ULSD from ARA to Germany, Eastern France, and Switzerland from being able to load to their full carrying capacity, as low water levels constrain vessels’ draft. Weekly volumes of GO/ULSD moved by barge from ARA to Rhine destinations fell to only 73,899 MT during the week ending January 27, the lowest level since Genscape began monitoring Rhine inflow January of 2015.
Genscape monitors European product tanker flows in the European Waterborne Products Report. This weekly report illuminates the flows in and out of Europe and the Baltic so that traders and analysts can better gauge global refined product markets. To learn more, or to request a free trial of Genscape's European Waterborne Products Report, please click here.
These tanker flows are also monitored in Genscape's ARA Refined Product and Crude Storage Reports. The weekly reports are the only ARA Storage Reports that measure tank-by-tank physical inventories for gasoline and naptha, jet fuel, crude oil, and gasoline. Users can benefit from a real world picture of physical storage levels, making them more strategic in trading and allocating resources. To learn more, or to request a free trial of Genscape's ARA Refined Product and Crude Storage Reports, please click here.
Genscape’s weekly Rhine Oil Barge Report provides a more complete picture of German refined product imports with insight into refined product flows from ARA up the Rhine. This information can be crucial as European gasoil and ULSD markets are particularly reactive to German demand. To learn more about Genscape's Rhine Oil Barge Report, or to request a trial, please click here.