On August 2, 2017, Genscape estimated that the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) members crushed 145.5 million bushels during July 2017, up from 138.1 million bushels in June 2017. This is also up 1.7 million bushels from July 2016. Genscape’s estimate was approximately two million bushels better than average trade expectations. The official July 2017 NOPA release was 144.7 million bushels.
The Illinois, Iowa, and IKMO regions saw the biggest month-over-month differences in bushels crushed. The Illinois region saw 3.5 million less outage bushels this month leading to an overall increase of 4.2 million bushels from June 2017. Iowa also had 1.9 million less outage bushels since June 2017, leading to an overall increase in production of 2.1 million bushels. The largest decrease in production from June 2017 was in the IKMO where the addition of 4.4 million more outage bushels lead to an overall production decrease of 2.7 million bushels.
Beginning with the official, final August outlook, Genscape will also start providing an estimate of the NOPA Oil and Meal Production numbers in the Soybean Crush Report. This information provides unparalleled visibility into the market as production has been responding quickly to the rising demand for both oil and meal.
Genscape’s first August outlook has been available to clients since August 16, with daily updates until the final August outlook on September 3. These updates will continue to be valuable as more uncertainty hits the market. On August 22, the U.S. ITC ruled to impose substantial tariffs on U.S. biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia. Slower imports will have a bullish impact on soybean oil. Genscape’s clients receive initial national and regional crush estimates available up to 12 days ahead of NOPA releases. Crush rates will impact bean demand, bean carryover, meal supply, and oil supply. This information will be critical in order to make more informed trading and hedging decisions in a time of uncertainly. To learn more, about Genscape’s Soybean Crush Report, please click here.