As tropical depression Harvey is forecasted to strengthen over the next 24 hours before making landfall, Genscape's power and natural gas analysts have teamed up to provide a quick outlook on what to expect.
Weather:
Harvey is expected to drive bearish demand in ERCOT through Monday, August 28, when the system moves into MISO South. This system will bring exorbitant rainfall totals as well as tropical storm force winds and potential for severe weather. Harvey will not only produce impressive precipitation totals, but will also bring widespread cloud cover to southern and coastal ERCOT. Overcast skies have potential to expand into South-Central, where temperatures could verify even cooler. More so, forced line outages and potential for evacuations will further reduce load levels.
Wind Generation:
Apart from demand, wind generation can also expect a noticeable impact through this weekend. Potential for curtailments will drive bearish wind generation risks through the duration of the storm. Wind in South Texas is expected to increase this evening as the outer bands stretch into the Rio Grande Valley. A gradual generation decrease is expected tomorrow morning, but will strengthen as the storm makes landfall. By afternoon of August 25, wind is expected to maintain tropical storm force speeds, but there is potential for gusts to exceed 55 mph and surpass cutout speeds through the weekend.
Natural Gas:
Tropical Storm Harvey has already caused shut ins of approximately 555 mmcf/d as of the morning of August 24, in addition to nearly 330 mmcf/d on August 23. Genscape has seen large production drops at Lucius (-215 mmcf/d), Perdido (-160 mmcf/d), and Okeanos (-30 mmcf/d). Genscape's total Gulf of Mexico Daily Pipe Production estimate for August 23 was revised down approximately 335 mmcf/d as offshore evacuations began. Public data for shut ins are usually reported by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement, but has not yet began posting data. Genscape will continue to monitor and report to clients as soon as that data is updated.
The Texas coast is anticipating the first land-falling hurricane since Ike struck in 2008. Tropical Storm Harvey is forecast to intensify over the from August 24 to 25 before making landfall between Brownsville and Victoria. A midlevel ridge will strengthen in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and will steer Harvey into the Texas coast, but building high pressure in the west will cause the storm to linger over the region for a prolonged period.
Interested to learn more about the impacts? Request a free trial Genscape's PowerIQ™ Market Intelligence or Natural Gas Production Forecast to stay receive timely alerts and commentary focused around Tropical Depression Harvey.