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The Eclipse Effect: U.S. Gasoline Demand Gets a Late-Summer Boost from Eclipse Traffic

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On Monday, August 21, 2017, millions of Americans hit the road to experience the first total solar eclipse in the U.S. in 38 years. Many headed towards the path of totality, a 70-mile wide stretch across the country where the moon completely obstructed the sun. More than 12 million people live within the path, while another 200 million are within a day’s drive, according to eclipse cartographer Michael Zeiler.

The rare event generated considerable traffic in affected states, providing a boost to gasoline demand near the end of the summer driving season. The path of totality traversed Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina, also cutting corners through Montana, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Solar Eclipse Path 2017

In the eight states with widespread totality coverage, average total motor gasoline rack demand during the eclipse and the weekend leading up to it (August 18 - 21) increased 4 percent as compared to the same four days in the previous week (August 11 - 14). The biggest demand increases were in Wyoming and Nebraska, at 14 and 13 percent, respectively. 
 
Rack Cities with more than a 15 percent increase in total motor gasoline rack liftings between the two long weekends were all within 75 miles of eclipse totality, with Newcastle, WY, showing the highest increase at 60.57 percent, according to Genscape's Supply Side Analyst data.
 
Overall, U.S. total motor gasoline rack demand increased nearly 1 percent from August 18 to 21 versus August 11 to 14, as motorists traveled to view the eclipse. Regions with the highest increase were consequently areas with highest span of totality. PADD 4 total motor gasoline rack demand was up the most at 4 percent, and both PADD 1C and PADD 2 were also up more than 2 percent each, according to Genscape. 
 
With the "eclipse effect," U.S. total motor gasoline rack demand for this week to date (August 18 - 23) is still up nearly 1 percent as compared to the same six days in the previous week (August 11 - 16) and the week before (August 4 - 9), according to Genscape.
 
The 2017 eclipse was especially unique because it spanned from coast to coast. Before this year’s eclipse, the continental U.S. had not seen a total solar eclipse since February 26, 1979. The next one will be a shorter wait, occurring on April 8, 2024, but will not span across the entire U.S.
Total Motor Gasoline
 
Genscape’s Supply Side Analyst and Supply Side Monitor data is derived from actual transactions at the rack level, where gasoline and diesel are distributed from secondary storage terminals to retail stations. On average Genscape covers 74 percent of total gasoline rack activity and 68 percent of total diesel rack activity. This rack activity can be used as an indicator of retail (or tertiary) refined products demand. To learn more, or to request a trial of Genscape’s Supply Side Analyst and Supply Side Monitor, please click here.

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